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Lake Michigan Surf Forecast

Our surfing forecast for Lake Michigan is updated every Monday and Thursday morning by resident meteorologist, Dr. Fresh (see his bio below). New to Great Lakes wave forecasting? Dive in deep with our resources below.


Updated by Dr. Fresh on Thursday, March 21 2019

5-day Lake Michigan wave forecast model


SURF QUALITY KEY (for daily summary below, not map above)

BLUE – Flat or Poor Surf

PURPLE – Mediocre Surf

ORANGE – Fun Surf 

GREEN - Epic Surf

RED - Victory at Sea


Lake Michigan Surf Forecast for Thursday - Sunday:

Summary: Beaches are starting to open back up and the lake will soon be ice free, especially over the southern end of Lake Michigan. Keep in mind that these forecasts are for locations that are ice free. With the N wind setup on Friday, ice will travel south potentially clogging beaches that are now open. Be careful and watch for drifting ice and rapidly changing conditions. A Canadian high will drop into the Great Lakes Friday bringing a solid N wave event for the south end. Biggest through early Friday afternoon before fading. The weekend itself looks quiet with another N flow setup possible for Monday. 

THURSDAY: Variable wind becoming NW 10 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet, mainly for the southern half of the lake.

FRIDAY: N wind 15 to 25 knots with gale force gusts. Waves building 5 to 7 feet, mainly for the southern end of the lake.

SATURDAY: Small lingering N swell possible very early Saturday. N wind 5 to 15 knots becoming variable later in the day.

SUNDAY: Light and variable wind. Flat to poor surf.




First things first: want to go really deep into Great Lakes wave forecasting? Scroll to the bottom of this page for the live webinar we did in October 2018.

While predicting waves on most ocean coasts has become a science of its own, with countless surf reports, surf-specific web cams, and detailed forecasts, surf forecasting in the Great Lakes is in its relative infancy. To put it bluntly; you have to work at it. Fortunately, there are now numerous resources available, mostly via the World Wide Web. Read on for a look into surf forecasting on the Great Lakes.

Finding waves is easy. Finding good waves is the challenge.


What makes waves? It's simple: wind. We need wind to make waves, but we also need a good stretch of water for the wind to blow over to produce those waves. That brings us to something called fetch - the length of water the wind is blowing over. Look at any beach on a map and find the longest amount of fetch connected to the beach, and that will tell you what wind direction you need to make waves at that beach. And, keep in mind that a stated wind direction means the wind is coming from that direction (a north wind blows from the North to the South).

Some beaches get waves from many directions, but the above example would theoretically build the biggest waves. The size of the waves depends on factors such as wind speed, wind direction, wind duration, the amount of fetch, and the bottom contours over which the waves are breaking; but the fetch is probably the most important factor. An example? If you were in New Buffalo, on southern Lake Michigan, a west wind (blowing from Chicago to New Buffalo) only has about 50 miles of fetch, but a north wind (blowing from the Upper Peninsula) has about 300 miles of fetch - which wind direction do you think produces bigger waves in New Buffalo?


Assembled here are some of the most functional and easy-to-use online tools for finding waves in the Great Lakes. Included are wind maps, wave models, and other relevant links that can be found in any serious lake surfer's online arsenal. Read the description for each, then dive in and start to get to know them. Your reward? Good, uncrowded waves that even an ocean surfer would be stoked to find.










Our forecasting expert, Dr. Fresh, is a Midwest transplant from the East Coast. Like most of us, he makes the best of his situation and tries to think he can actually surf a lake. When not attempting this, Dr. Fresh can be found looking at weather maps trying to nail down our next swell. He has a degree in atmospheric science and is a meteorologist by profession (yep, on TV), so we'll just assume he knows what he's doing.